Lifting Lockdown Could Be in Sight…

It’s been sometime since I was last in touch to say hello to everyone and, accepting the obvious fact that we’re all still shutdown from teaching face-to-face, I hope you’re well and keeping fit.

As the title suggests it looks like we are closing in on the end of the latest lockdown and, fingers crossed, sooner than was being predicted, and I wanted to share with everyone what I understand are the issues that will make this a reality. Many eminent epidemiologists are pressing the government to commit to a daily infection figure that when it’s reached will be the trigger to start a progressive relaxing of lockdown – as distinct from the government giving some arbitrary date.

The figure that has been bandied about, although the government will not commit to it is 1,000 a day (hospitalisations) on a 7 day moving average.  Some 10,625 new cases (infections) were recorded earlier this week compared to some 60,000 on the first day of January. This is due to the very successful vaccine rollout with some 13 million already vaccinated.

Papers released by Sage last month projected 800 deaths a day, with 2,200 daily hospital admissions by mid-February, whereas, in fact, the seven day average of admissions was 1,497 (one third lower) and some 482 deaths (40 per cent lower). Mark Woodhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburg University was quoted, “My conclusion is that if you’re driven by data and not by dates, right now, you should be looking at earlier unlocking."     
 
However, getting this government to set a number and then stick to it is likely to be a forlorn hope given the amount of goalposts they keep on hand to keep moving round, but hints from Whitehall seem to indicate the 1,000 a day will be the trigger.
 
So, fingers crossed and I’ll keep everyone up to date over the next few weeks and in the meantime, take care.
 
Kind Regards
 
Peter